Market-Inferred Pricing Engine

Price outcomesthe market.

ClearStake reverse-engineers true probabilities directly from liquid betting markets. The edge comes from structural pricing inefficiencies, not luck.

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Public

Track record

2,212

Settled bets

10.3%

Profit on turnover

+270.3u

Total returns

LAL @ HOU · SGM

Devigged market probabilities

Jabari Smith Jr

20+ points

P = 0.484

@ 2.07

Rui Hachimura

10+ rebounds

P = 0.412

@ 2.43

+ Correlation factor (ρ = +0.08)

True SGM odds

4.65

→

Bookie offering

5.20

Edge captured+11.8% EV

WBD vs BRI · SGM

Devigged market probabilities

M. Bontempelli

28.5+ disposals

P = 0.521

@ 1.92

L. Neale

27.5+ disposals

P = 0.547

@ 1.83

+ Correlation factor (ρ = −0.04)

True SGM odds

3.55

→

Bookie offering

3.90

Edge captured+9.4% EV

Live Performance

Every bet. Every market. Fully transparent.

Cumulative P/L+270.3u

Oct25Dec25Feb26Apr26

How we find edge

Sharps already did the work.
We just read it back.

Liquid single-bet markets are priced by professionals. Remove the bookmaker's vig, and you reveal the truth.

Strip the margin

Pull prices from every single-bet market from sharp books and remove the bookmaker margin so probabilities reflect the true market view.

over_19.5_pts: 2.07 → p̂ = 0.484

over_8.5_reb: 2.43 → p̂ = 0.412

vig removed: 4.6%

Measure relationships

Compare singles against same-game props the sharps did price. The implied joint probability gives us the correlation coefficient between every prop pair.

P(A ∩ B): 0.218

P(A) · P(B): 0.199

ρ implied: +0.083

Find the edge

Rebuild the true price using fair probabilities and relationships. Flag every leg combination where the bookie is mispriced.

true_odds: 4.65

bookie_odds: 5.20

EV: +11.8% ▲ FLAGGED

Repeat across every game, every prop pair, every bookmaker, multiple times per day.

The category distinction

This isn't gambling.
It's relative-value trading.

A bettor speculates on outcomes. A trader exploits mispriced relationships between prices. Same instruments, different game.

Traditional sports betting

Picks a side. Hopes it lands.

A bettor forms a view on who wins, takes the bookie's price, and wears the variance. Edge depends on out-predicting the market, which sharp books spend millions to prevent.

×Bets against the line the market has already settled on
×Edge is predictive and needs better info than sharps
×Correlation pricing on SGMs is invisible, so you're flying blind on multi-leg bets
×P/L = luck × variance

ClearStake

Trades the gap between two prices.

We never form a view on the game. We compare a bookie's combined bet price against the price implied by its individual markets. When those disagree, that's the trade.

✓Bets price vs. price, same way an FX desk trades arbitrage
✓Edge is structural and comes from bookies' own pricing inconsistencies
✓Correlation factors are extracted from liquid markets, not guessed
✓P/L = repeatable EV × volume

The receipts

Every trade. Public.

Win or loss, every settled tip is on the Results page.
No deletes. No cherry picks.

2,212

Settled bets

+270.3u

Cumulative profit (units)

10.3%

Profit on turnoveri

2.34×

Risk-adjusted returni

As of
30 May 2026Open the full track record →

What kind of profits can I expect?

Returns scale with bankroll and stake size. Plug in your numbers and the calculator models outcomes against ClearStake's real historical settled odds distribution and edge.

Open profit calculator →

★ Worked example · Real trade

One trade.
Quantified edge.

The market priced two correlated player props in a Lakers–Rockets game. Devigged singles gave us fair joint probability. The bookie offering this bet combo was 12% above fair value, which was a structural mispricing on correlation.

We staked 1.0 unit. The trade settled +4.20u after both legs landed.

This is one of 80,000+ legs we've graded. Most aren't this clean, but the math is identical.

NBALAL @ HOUSGM · 2 legs

LegP̂FairOffered

Jabari Smith Jr20+ points

0.4842.072.07

Rui Hachimura10+ rebounds

0.4122.432.43

Correlation factor ρ = +0.083P(A∩B) = 0.215

Fair SGM odds

4.65

Bookie offered

5.20

Expected value · Settled outcome+11.8% EV → +4.20u

What members get

Edge. Sized. Always on.

⊕

EV Board with daily CSB Tips

Every positive-EV combo across the books, sortable and filterable. Flip the CSB Tips toggle for the day's recommended picks, with bookie line, minimum threshold, and stake size for each.

View EV Board →

⌖

Live tracker

Watch your active bet legs hit their thresholds in real time. Per-game outlay, floor, ceiling, and live unit-P/L.

View Live Tracker →

⌬

Public, unfiltered track record

Every trade since inception — wins, losses, voids. Filter by sport, bet type and date. Export to CSV.

View Results →

Member community

Join our growing
member community.

Real-time discussion, shared setups, and full transparency on how the edge is traded.

Live chat the moment tips drop
Members-only deep dives on model picks
Direct line to the team for questions

Join our Discord

What members say

"Been in here a bit now and the transparency is legit. All plays logged and you can actually see how they get the edge. Not just tail and pray."

- M. H., Member since 2025

"Best community of serious bettors I've been part of. The edge comes from pricing, not hype."

- T. S., Member since 2025

"Feels very different from most groups. It’s actual quantitative reasoning behind the bets, not just ‘trust me bro’ picks."

- R. K., Member since 2026

Fully transparent

Every bet tracked

Members only

Quality over quantity

Real-time alerts

Never miss value

Price outcomesthe market.

Sharps already did the work.We just read it back.

This isn't gambling.It's relative-value trading.